January 26: Warmer Weekend!
A nice warming trend will kick in today, despite this morning’s cold wake-up temperatures:
We’ll see mostly sunny skies overhead throughout the day, with highs climbing to the mid to upper 50s:
We’ll stay above freezing tonight, but it will still be chilly if you plan on being out early Saturday:
Temperatures will warm up to around or just above 60 degrees Saturday afternoon, despite increasing clouds:
If you’ll be out and about in Chapel Hill and Durham before or after the basketball games tomorrow, you can expect mild temperatures and dry conditions:
The second half of the weekend is looking wet, as a cold front approaches from the west and moisture moves in from the south…here’s a look at the North American model’s radar simulation from Saturday evening through midday Monday:
I don’t anticipate any thunderstorms this time around, just plain old rain…which we need! The latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that all of central North Carolina is at least “abnormally dry,” with about half of the area classified in “moderate drought.”
A new wrinkle showed up in the computer model data this morning: some moisture lingering into Monday night, producing the chance of a rain/snow mix.
Both the GFS model…
…and the European model are showing that possibility:
I’m not adding any flakes into the 7-day forecast just yet, for a couple of reasons. First of all, I’m waiting to see if the forecast models are consistent in subsequent runs — this could just be a little computer hiccup. Second, it doesn’t line up too well with historical patterns…it’s hard for the atmosphere to hang onto very much moisture when a cold air mass is barging in. That said, it doesn’t take much moisture to produce snow (just 0.1″ of water is equivalent to around 1″ of snow). So we’ll keep an close eye on that part of the forecast, and we’ll keep you updated over the weekend.
A substantial shot of cold air will move in by Tuesday and Wednesday, before we warm back up on Thursday to kick off the month of February:
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